Monthly Archives: November 2021

Hospitals running out of ICU Beds in Switzerland – not really 2.0

I’ve looked at the current situation with hospital capacity in Switzerland, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH), with data current as of November 28, 2021:

  • Situation in Berne
  • Situation in Zurich
  • Overall Situaiton

As of November 28, 2021, ICU-bed situation is a follows in Switzerland:

  • Overall, 22.8% of all ICU beds are free. These numbers include all patients, not only the COVID-19 ones;
  • Overall, COVID-19 patients occupy 25.4% of ICU bed capacity;
  • Canton of Zurich has most ICU beds (179), and has only 9.5% beds free (17 beds in absolute numbers). It’s worthwhile to note that 21.8% are COVID-19 patients (39), 68.7% are non-COVID-19 patients.
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La Palma Eruption: No Sign of Calming Down

While no longer in the news cycle, at least outside Spain, the volcano on La Palma shows no sign of winding down it’s eruption.
This morning (Nov. 30) alone, seismic activity was elevated, with 121 quakes one of which was 4.1 on Richter Scale, writes local newspaper Canarias7.

Earthquake activity in the last 83/90 days, according to IGN:

  • Fig. 1 – Seismic activity last 90 days, according to IGN

Seismic signals (volcanic tremors) today, according to IGN:

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Parliamentary Elections in Kyrgyzstan: The same procedure as last elections…

The same procedure as last elections? The same procedure as every election! It is already a tradition in Kyrgyzstan to no accept results of elections in Kyrgyzstan, and have riots, regime change and calling of new elections immediately after the contested one:

Four parties demand re-election. A joint statement was made by the Ata-Meken, Uluttar Birimdigi, Social Democrats and Azattyk parties.
They stated that the failures on the CEC website (https://t.me/sputnik_kyrgyzstan/47821) were a prepared falsification of the voting results.
Meanwhile, Sadyr Zhaparov advised them to count the ballots manually.”
Until all ballots are completely counted and parties expressing dissatisfaction are satisfied, ballots cannot be moved. If the CEC is found to be rigged, all its members will be brought to justice. They will answer with their heads,” he wrote.

Source: Sputnik Kyrgyzstan Telegram

So what happened this time? Apparently the website of the Central Election Commission (CEC) failed, or rather had an error:

Why did the CEC website fail? The head of the Central Election Commission explained that two programs are used to display the results: the first automatically reads data from electronic ballot boxes, and the second reduces this data for display.
“To improve the visual presentation, we introduced an external table. This was done for easier visualization, but one small formula was laid incorrectly. It added two positions that should not have been added. It was immediately noticed and adjusted,” Nurzhan explained. Shaildabekova.
She said there were no glitches in the main system. The head of the CEC added that the count data can be easily verified, as each observer is given a sheet with the results of the count at the site.

Source: Sputnik Kyrgyzstan Telegram

PCR Tests Don’t Identify the Variant

With the news of a new SARS-Cov-2 variant named ‘Omicron’, or rather B.1.1.529 with it’s technical designation on the horizon, it bears repeating, that your usual PCR test is not capable of determining which variant of the virus was detected in a positive test.
That’s what “Whole Genome Sequencing” is for, or more specifically, next-generation sequencing (NGS) as noted by the CDC. So what is NGS:

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) is a massively parallel sequencing technology that offers ultra-high throughput, scalability, and speed. The technology is used to determine the order of nucleotides in entire genomes or targeted regions of DNA or RNA. NGS has revolutionized the biological sciences, allowing labs to perform a wide variety of applications and study biological systems at a level never before possible.  

Source: illumina.com

The method has been used to detect other variants of SARS-Cov-2.
Here’s a good opportunity to clear up the terms “variant” and “strain”.
In the process of replicating the viral RNA errors occur, i.e. during copying, one or more constituents of the RNA genetic code are replaced with other constituents. This is called a mutation. Viruses with mutations are called “variants” and differ slightly from the original virus. Some mutations have no effect at all, others change the behaviour of the virus, in which case the mutation is called “strain”, a “strain” is also a “variant”, but not vice versa – see here for a nice introduction to this topic.
Previous strains were the UK variant (B.1.17), the (previous South African variant (B.1.351).
The current newly identified South African variant (B.1.1.529) is most likely also a strain, since it has increased transmission rates.
Now, it would be interesting to know, when NGS are performed, how many are performed and how long they take.
I haven’t found numbers so far, so I can only guess. Given my understanding of the technology, I have to assume that not every sample is tested (a test takes time and cost money). Or in the words on an article on the Roche website, published June 1, 2021:

While there have been significant technological and cost-effective advances in analyzing the genome with NGS, the method has not yet been widely used in routine clinical practice for diagnosis. This suggests that there remain many challenges and uncertainties that clinical laboratories, regulatory agencies, payers and other stakeholders need to address before NGS becomes standard for diagnosing diseases or biomarker testing.

Source: roche.com


This would lead me to believe that it is usually not determined scientifically, which variant of SARS-Cov-2 someone has tested positive for.
So, if media and politicians claim that such-and-such variant was rapidly spreading, that is largely an assumption, in my view. Of course, there can always be information I’ve missed…